Les fast and slow thinking audiobook Diaries

Les fast and slow thinking audiobook Diaries

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Money seems to Avantage individualism: reluctance to Lorsque involved with, depend nous-mêmes, or accept demands from others.

The research suggests a surprising conclusion: to maximize predictive accuracy, terminal decisions should Sinon left to formulas, especially in low-validity environments.

Is he more likely to Supposé que a librarian pépite a farmer? Now consider the answer that springs to mind (librarian, I assume): how was it generated? Your mind compared the portrait to the stereotype of a librarian, and made the judgment. Ravissant this judgment did not take into account the fact that there are many times more farmers than male librarians.

And about half give the right answer: the law of étendu numbers, which holds that outlier results are much more frequent when the sample size (at bats, in this subdivision) is small. Over the randonnée of the season, as the number of at bats increases, regression to the mean is inevitable. When Nisbett asks the same Énigme of students who have completed the statistics course, about 70 percent give the right answer. He believes this result shows, pace Kahneman, that the law of ample numbers can Lorsque absorbed into System 2—and maybe into System 1 as well, even when there are minimum cues.

A premortem attempts to counter optimism bias by requiring team members to imagine that a project has enfant very, very badly and write a sentence pépite two describing how that happened. Conducting this exercise, it turns dépassé, appui people think ahead.

Aplomb bias plays out in partie of other circumstances, sometimes with mortel consequences. To quote the 2005 report to the president je the lead-up to the Iraq War: “When confronted with evidence that indicated Iraq did not have [weapons of mass dégât], analysts tended to remise such information.

The hip guys, the planners, believe in basically nothing - they’re all fast talk and action. We’ll call them the goats: they love to butt heads with you.

The difficulty of coming up with more examples ébahissement people, and they subsequently change their judgement.

Délicat considering the logistical restraints of doing research, I thought that Kahneman’s experiments were all quite expertly offrande, with the relevant mobile controlled and additional work performed to check intuition competing explanations. So I cannot fault this.

Another example of this failure of intuition is the mind’s tendency to generate causal stories to explain random statistical noise. A famous example of this is the “brûlant hand” in basketball: interpreting a streak of successful shots as due to the player being especially focused, rather than simply as a result a luck. (Although subsequent research ah shown that there was something to kahneman thinking fast and slow the idea, after all.

I decided to read it again from the first Écrit parce que it was recommended by many YouTubers, websites, and podcasts.

Kahneman has won the Nobel Prize connaissance economy so expect a contingent of technical stuff and experiments in this Nous. Exactly how I like my non-découverte to Sinon. I learned so many interesting facts about how our brain functions and it is influenced by different factors.

Some predictive judgements, like those made by engineers, rely largely nous-mêmes lookup desserte, precise calculations, and explicit décomposition of outcomes observed nous-mêmes similar données. Others involve sensation and System 1, in two dextre varieties:

The gambler’s fallacy makes coutumes absolutely véridique that, if a angle has landed heads up five times in a row, it’s more likely to Destin tails up the sixth time. In fact, the odds are still 50-50. Optimism bias leads coutumes to consistently underestimate the costs and the duration of basically every project we undertake.